This morning, I heard second hand that this Walmart post by me was in error.  Actually, I was told this evening by the person to whom the observation of error was attributed, it's the page pointed to by the second link in the content of my post that is in error. Not my page. Not the Molloy page of the first link, which I don't host, and didn't write. Rather, the kenaiwalmartno.com page, which also I don't host, and I didn't write. 

Referring to the kenaiwalmartno.com page, I heard, "This [Walmart lease] was never negotiated in private. There were no deals made...."

I didn't capture all the errors, I'm afraid, but these observations about that kenaiwalmartno.com site have been made to me both by a Kenai Councilman and the Kenai Mayor.

Walmart frequently has been in the national news, and contraversy frequently emerges upon its arrival in small communities. My intent with the post "Walmart Brouhaha Begins" was to observe, once again, the confluence of national with local, and to mark what seemed to me another globalization milestone on the Kenai Peninsula akin to Kenai's first stop light and the arrival of Dairy Queen, which, to me, wasn't that long ago.

I want to apologize to all who may have thought my link to the kenaiwalmartno.com-page was an afirmation of the veracity of that page.  It was not intended that way, but I understand how someone erroneously may have arrived at that conclusion. I also want to emphasize that my link to that page was not an endorsement of the page or the sentiments behind it. Nor was it an endorsement of Bob Molloy's page or Bob Molloy although I am happy now to say that I do appreciate the information Bob made accessible.

In the last two years posting to this website I have made hundreds of references and links to website pages not authored by me. Generally, I do try to filter what seems to me best, or most interesting, or most noteworthy from all that I read by way of sharing and commenting here. Sometimes I will juxtapose references to opposing views in separate posts. Sometimes I will make references to lonely, outlier perspectives, which to me seem potentially valuable to consider.

I thought that kenaiwalmartno.com page was both noteworthy and interesting, arriving as it did from our small community. If anyone would like to address it point by point, by way of setting the public straight, I would be happy to help him or her do that.

In the future if I make a post with errors in it, which I am perfectly capable of doing, please feel free to reply in comments to correct me. You may do that anonymously or using your own name. Just click on the link below, enter your comments, and submit. Not only is sharing your insight, wisdom, or perspective simple to do, you'd be doing a public service.

{moscomment}

Essie Jain

Most people continue to assume our future will be characterized by business-as-usual growth and routine. Kenai's WalMart will get built in the next 2-3 years. After that, for an indefinite period some local businesses will benefit from increased traffic, others may not, and shoppers will get lower prices, and everywhere we will continue to grow.

I think that scenario easily may not come true for several reasons.

To begin with, WalMart is heavily dependent on transportation. A WalMart in Kenai even more so will be heavily dependent on transportation.  As we only are beginning to realize, transportation depends on high quality primary energy sources. In other words, it is highly dependent on oil, and yes, even natural gas because natural gas is such an important energy contributor for the production of materials.

North America's natural gas production has peaked. In addition, global conventional oil production may have peaked, is peaking now, or soon will be peaking.

On top of that, high technology seems to be bringing steeper decline rates in conventional oil and gas fields. Natural gas decline rates are steepening to 20-30% per year in younger North American wells (see image). Recent indicators suggest conventional oil decline rates for major basins that are using third and forth generation technologies to achieve maximum production rates may result in decline rates up to 8% per year.

The world's biggest fields (and supply sources) are very mature (40-60 years old). 

In a post-peak-energy-production world, WalMart's outsourcing business model may become an Achilles heel. Stores located on the periphery of the transport network in marginal population areas will be the first to close.

Here are five slides from Matthew Simmons that emphatically point to the scenario I'm drawing.  Matthew Simmons, btw, is the founder and principal of an investment bank that does billions of dollars in transactions exclusively in the energy industry. The slides are from a speech located here.

Essie Jain

{moscomment}

Alter a word by adding, subtracting, or changing one letter, and supply a new definition. Here are this year's winners from the Washington Post contest.  Each is an artificial word with only one letter altered to form a real word.

Add your own:

1. Intaxication: Euphoria at getting a tax refund, which lasts until you realize it was your money to start with.
2. Reintarnation: Coming back to life as a hillbilly.
3. Bozone (n.): The substance surrounding stupid people that stop bright ideas from penetrating. The bozone layer, unfortunately, shows little sign of breaking down in the near future.
4. Cashtration (n.): The act of buying a house, which renders the subject financially impotent for an indefinite period.
5. Giraffiti: Vandalism spray-painted very, very high.
6. Sarchasm: The gulf between the author of sarcastic wit and the person who doesn't get it.
7. Inoculatte: To take coffee intravenously when you are running late.
8. Hipatitis: Terminal coolness.
9. Osteopornosis: A degenerate disease.
10. Karmageddon: It's like, when everybody is sending off all these really
bad vibes, right? And then, like, the Earth explodes and it's like, serious bummer.
11. Decafalon (n.): The gruelin event of getting through the day consuming only things that are good for you.
12. Glibido: All talk and no action.
13. Dopeler effect: The tendency of stupid ideas to seem smarter when they come at you rapidly.
14. Arachnoleptic fit (n.): The frantic dance performed just after you've accidentally walked through a spider web.
15. Beelzebug (n.): Satan in the form of a mosquito, that gets into your bedroom at three in the morning and cannot be cast out.
16. Caterpallor (n.): The color you turn after finding half a worm in the fruit you're eating.
17. Congloomeration: when too many concurrent mishaps create a period of prevailing gloominess.

Essie Jain